Wednesday, October 22, 2008
States I am pretty sure Senator McCain will win.
I know the national polls don't reflect it, but there are states where I am willing to call for Senator McCain as long as he continues campaigning there.
The state that folks say I am wrong about most is Pennsylvania. The national polls show it very blue, but in fact, it is not. Even Senator Obama's leaked internal polls show it very very tight. That also explains why Pa. Governor Rendell is nervous when Senator Obama is not actively campaigning there. I think he saw the internal Obama polls too.
So I'm flipping Pennsylvania red. Barely red, sure, but red nevertheless.
Ohio will likely go for Senator McCain as well.
Does anyone really think that Virginia or North Carolina are going to go for Senator Obama?
Florida is also likely going to go to Senator McCain.
That gives Senator McCain 256 electoral votes, and brings Senator Obama down to 252.
Overly optimistic? No.
I remember the 2004 election polls. Senator Kerry had a huge lead on President Bush on this day nation wide. Ohio was supposedly in the bag for Kerry. Ohio went to President Bush. The media were all but calling it for Senator Kerry.
If my analysis is correct, or even near correct, Senator McCain will need to go after either Indiana or Missouri, then Nevada to win this election.
Pennsylvania is really the only state that may go to Senator Obama. In that case, Senator McCain loses. Not mathematically, but for all practical purposes.